Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-01-02T13:23:12

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 continues to persist at mostly background levels. The onset of fast winds, followed by the likely CME arrival on day 1 (02 Jan) will lead to a disturbed geospace environment but also a subsequent potential charging of the compressed Van Allen Belts. As these ease back to GEO, there is the potential for observed flux to increase to Moderate, perhaps High, although this is low confidence as this depends on the enhancement from any CME arrival. 

Electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but likely with a gradually increasing trend from day 2 (03 Jan). REFM is currently giving good guidance in the absence of any fast wind or CME arrival, however once this occurs, this guidance will become less useful.