Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-03T01:27:25

Electron flux is at largely Background levels following recently enhanced geomagnetic activity. Some recovery of flux to Moderate or High levels at diurnal peak is possible from day 1 (03 Dec) and then probable from day 2 (04 Dec) onwards. Electron flux is then likely to decrease to Background levels again as geomagnetic activity increases with the arrival of the HSS from CH76/-, late on day 2 or early day 3 (04 or 05 Dec) along with possible minor CME influences.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). However, a rising trend is likely between day 1-3 (03-05 Dec) with a very Slight Chance of exceeding the Active threshold on day 2 and 3 (04 and 05 Dec).