Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-11T00:26:44

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, has been mainly moderate over the last few days, since the solar wind enhancement from a recent coronal hole. This is likely to drop to near background levels with any enhancement from either CH77/+ or CH80/+, along with any CME glance on Day 1 (11 Dec). Some recovery in flux, to mainly moderate levels, is then likely Days 2-3 (12-13 Dec), before a further suppression on Day 4 (14 Dec) with another enhancement likely from CH79/+.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold through the period. A decline is probable on Day 1, before a slight recovery on Days 2-3. It is unlikely this will reach the Active threshold, however, before a further decline is likely on Day 4. This is broadly supported by REFM, which keeps fluence below Active, although doesn't really signal a rise on Days 2-3.