Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-10T13:21:13

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain predominantly at High levels until the arrival of the expected CME later on 11 or on 12 Nov, then rapidly falling to background or moderate levels. As the expected geomagnetic enhancement subsides later in the forecast period so the high energy electron flux levels are expected to increase again, reaching High levels again during days 3 and 4 (12th and 13th). The associated 24-hour electron fluence is expected to exceed the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold today and tomorrow, dropping below after the CME arrives, and then possibly reaching Active levels again during day 4 as the high energy electron flux recovers.

The overall trend of the MOSWOC REFM model is currently underestimating the fluence, and is showing a decreasing trend through today, with a rising trend thereafter. This is considered to be offering poor guidance, with an increasing trend forecast through today and with Active threshold expected to be breached, followed by a decreasing trend later on 11 or more likely on 12 Nov following the arrival of the CME from 09 Nov.