Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-12T00:22:37

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 has peaked at moderate levels at the diurnal maximum in recent days, but is expected to continue at mainly background levels. Any fast wind arrival from CH58/- may act to initially supress observed values, alongside the potential CME arrival early 12 Oct, but will see an increase in electron flux through the Van Allen Belts at lower orbits. This may lead to the observed flux at GEO increasing as solar wind pressure eases, bringing a chance of Moderate levels from 13 Oct. 

Electron fluence is forecast to be well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level throughout, however, albeit with a slight increased trend from 13 Oct. MOSWOC REFM output is currently considered to be giving good guidance.