Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-11T13:25:21

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has shown day-on-day increases in response to the recent fast wind from CH67/-, but is expected to now be near its peak in a steady state between Moderate and High flux.

Active electron fluence is Expected on Saturday 11 November, with levels in the Van Allen belts then very likely to be attenuated upon the arrival of the 09 November CME, with fluence perhaps just surviving into Sunday 12 November before falling off sharply for a time. Geomagnetic activity should then hold levels at GEO for at least 24 hours before an uncertain degree of recovery into the new working week.

The new UTC week is unlikely to offer further significant charging of the belts, and should the CME prove dispersive in terms of GEO electron populations, any subsequent recovery is unlikely.

MOSWOC REFM is not felt to be a useful guide in this instance given the overwhelming reliance of the forecast on transient activity.