Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-04T13:10:19

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to continue to vary between Moderate and High levels initially, with a continuation in diurnal maxima into High levels probable during day 1 (04 Nov) and perhaps initially day 2 (05 Nov), as the enhancement of the previous HSS from CH66 continues. A return to background or Moderate levels likely into days 3 and 4 (06-07 Nov) however, due to expected geomagnetic activity and subsequent electron redistribution. 

Electron fluence currently exceeding the Active (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is expected to remain above this level day 1 (04 Nov), and likely initially day 2 (05 Nov) with a declining trend into day 3 onwards. The MOSWOC REFM model is therefore considered to be offering good guidance if the daily maximum is taken as the average for the next 3 days.