Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-29T00:27:36

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) observed by GOES16 at GEO is currently at background, although recent solar wind enhancements have likely increased populations at lower orbits. Ongoing solar wind pressure through day 1 (29 Oct) will likely limit the potential for flux to rise at GEO at first, but with an increasing chance of reaching High through days 2-4 (30 Oct-01 Nov) as solar winds and any ongoing geomagnetic activity eases. There is the potential for persistently high flux by the end of the period

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to see an increasing trend, likely reaching active days 3-4 (31 Oct-01 Nov), with a chance of reaching this level earlier on day 2 (30 Oct). REFM has yet to take account of the current solar wind enhancement, so while likely giving good guidance in the short term this will give a poor indication beyond T+24.