MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-04T13:02:36
Electron flux is at background levels with the Van Allen belts still suppressed following recent enhanced geomagnetic activity. Continued suppression is expected as geomagnetic activity increases within the HSS from CH76/-. An increase to High levels is likely by day 3 and 4 (06-07 Dec) as the electron belts relax back towards ambient positions.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. However, a rising trend is likely from days 3 and 4 (06-07 Dec) with a chance of exceeding the Active threshold on day 4. REFM is considered to be providing reasonable guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-12-04T13:02:36 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |