Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-11T12:39:06

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, has been mainly moderate over the last few days, following waning solar wind enhancement from a recent coronal hole. This may drop towards background levels with any enhancement from either CH77/+ or CH80/+ on Day 1 (11 Dec). Some recovery in flux, to moderate levels, is then likely Days 2-3 (12-13 Dec), possibly reaching a diurnal peak at high levels. This is supported by the BAS-RBM relatavistic electron forecast which has provided a reliable steer in recent days.  A suppression is then anticipated at some point from Day 4 (14 Dec) with the likely HSS enhancement from CH79/+.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold through the period. A slight decline is probable on Day 1, before recovery on Days 2-3. It is unlikely this will reach the Active threshold, however, before a further decline is likely late Day 4 onwards. This is broadly supported by REFM, which keeps fluence below Active, although doesn't signal a notable rise on Days 2-3.