Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-12T12:43:47

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, has been mainly moderate over the last few days, with diurnal peaks into the high threshold. This pattern is likely to continue through Days 1-2 (12-13 Dec), but with a gradual declining trend in flux levels. A more appreciable suppression is anticipated at some point from Day 3 (14 Dec) following the anticipated HSS enhancement from CH79/+.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, but may rise closer to the Active threshold by the end of the period, depending on the timing and strength of the next anticipated HSS. The REFM is considered to be giving limited useful guidance at present, with the sharp decline on Day 3 (14 Dec) dependent on the strength of connection with the HSS, which is currently uncertain.