Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-13T00:30:37

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at High levels over recent days in response to the fast wind from CH67/-. The 09 Nov CME which arrived around 12/0530 UTC has so far given limited geomagnetic response, meaning the usual electron flux dropout with a CME arrival has not occurred. The electron flux has declined very slowly over recent hours, however. There is low confidence in the behaviour of the electron flux in the coming days, but a continued slow decline seems most likely in the absence of geomagnetic activity. However, should we see an increase in geomagnetic activity then electron flux may drop off more sharply. 

Active (1e8 integrated pfu) electron fluence is also likely to gradually decline over the coming days, but with low confidence in the timing of any reduction. However, MOSWOC REFM is suggesting Active fluence may continue through the next three days - this is perhaps an overestimate, but cannot be completely discounted.