Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-06-09T00:12:06

The GOES19 high-energy (>2MeV) electron flux has been moderate to high over the last few days in response to the recent CME and fast wind arrivals. As the CME expected on the 08 June did not arrive, there is a likelihood electrons may continue at moderate to high levels for much of this forecast period. The next mechanism likely to cause a drop-out of electron flux at GEO will be the onset of coronal hole fast winds from later Day 3 (11 June), or more likely through Day 4 (12 June). 

The associated 24-hour fluence is currently just marginally below the active threshold. As electron flux levels are now expected to remain moderate to high over the coming days, and fluence is already close to the active threshold, there is a continued chance of active fluence conditions over the next few days, until a likely drop-out later in the period.