Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-10T00:14:51

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux is expected to persist at current Background to Moderate levels until the current fast wind enhancement subsides further, which will likely bring an increasing chance of reaching diurnally High flux Days 2-4 (11-13 May).

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold but with a relatively steady increasing trend as current enhanced winds ease. MOSWOC REFM indicates a sharp rise into 10 May but this is considered unrealistic, whereas recurrence suggest a gentle rising trend through the period with fluence remaining below Active throughout, and is preferred to the REFM forecast. Observed fluence values are currently well below both model predictions increasing confidence that Active fluence conditions will not develop.