Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-11T00:10:06

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux has persisted at Background to Moderate levels. Now that the fast winds from CH50 have subsided there may be an increasing chance of reaching diurnally High flux Days 1-2 (11-12 May). However, any glancing CME influence into Day 3 (13 May) will act to reduce electron counts, although this is lower confidence.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold but with a slight increasing trend into Day 2 (12 May). Depending on whether any glancing CME arrives will determine whether any slight rise is maintained into Day 3, or reduced again. MOSWOC REFM indicates an overall slow falling trend and should fall closer in line with observed values on Day 1. However, it will not include any possible CME effects into Day 3. Recurrence suggest a gentle rising trend through the next few days, but is much higher compared to observations, and is considered a less good guide.