Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-12T00:11:16

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux has persisted at Background to Moderate levels. Fast winds from CH50 are now comfortably at Background levels, with little response observed in electron flux levels. It is likely therefore that flux levels will remain at a similar level to start, only perhaps rising later in the period in response to any geomagnetic activity observed from the 10 May CME arrival. This would likely only be short-lived however, with the next fast winds from CH53 then expected by Day 4 (15 May) likely suppressing electron counts once again. Any subsequent rise following this fast wind enhancement will occur beyond the scope of this forecast.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout the period. There is a nod to a slight rise indicated on Day 3 (14 May) if electron counts do rise following any geomagnetic activity observed as a result of a CME arrival, however this is low confidence, with the MOSWOC REFM forecast deemed to be providing a reasonable guide.