MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-04-12T00:25:54
High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux at GOES19 has been mostly Moderate over the last 24 hours. Electron flux is expected to be Moderate initially, but rise through the period, becoming High or Very High, as solar wind pressure eases and the likely recent charging event within the electron belts becomes evident at GEO.
The 24 hour electron fluence is expected to be below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold initially, rising through the period. A Chance of becoming Active by the end of day 1 (12 Apr), then Likely days 2-4 (13-15 Apr). MOSWOC REFM forecast trend is deemed good guidance especially later in the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-04-12T00:25:54 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 80% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 80% | 5% |