Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-04-05T00:12:54

High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 is at Moderate to High levels, associated with the onset of the current HSS influence and associated solar wind dynamic pressure. The CME arrival and associated geomagnetic enhancement seemingly not sufficient to significantly reduce the observed flux. With HSS and CME influence expected to generally ease into the period electron flux values should persist at elevated levels, with increasing periods at High levels likely, although CME activity in the forecast reduce confidence in the evolution. This would assist in Fluence levels being maintained above the alert threshold and a warning notification is currently in force.

GOES19 high‑energy (>2 MeV) electron fluence is now expected to see a rising trend into the period, with a chance of rising above the active threshold through Day 1 (04 Apr), with values above the active threshold now expected into Day 2 (05 Apr) onwards given reasonable verification of recent MOSWOC REFM modelling.