Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-29T00:40:38

High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has mostly been below the Active threshold, excluding a period between 28/1755 UTC and 28/2055 UTC where flux was above threshold - peaking at 1.5e3 pfu at 28/1900UTC. Flux is expected to remain below the Active threshold initially, with the arrival of the fast wind from CH34/+ suppressing any diurnal threshold breaching. However, flux is expected to return above Active later in the period from day 3 (31 Mar). 

High energy electron fluence fell below the Active threshold at 28/1800UTC. The fast wind from CH34/+ is expected to suppress electron counts at GEO for a time. The timing and extent of any recovery is beyond REFM's 72-hour range, however there is a Chance of reaching Active again from late day 3 (31 Mar).