MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-28T00:12:34
High energy electron fluence should survive above Active for around another 24 hours, however the inbound fast wind from CH34/+ should suppress electron counts at GEO for a time into the new UTC working week. The timing and extent of any recovery is beyond REFM's 72-hour range, however there is perhaps a Chance of re-passing Active around midweek UTC. The upcoming fast wind is not expected to be as significant as now-fading CH33/-, and even considering the fact that CH34/+ is larger and presumably more intense than last rotation, persistence would suggest that flux levels may not reach recent highs.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-03-28T00:12:34 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |