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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-28T00:12:34

High energy electron fluence should survive above Active for around another 24 hours, however the inbound fast wind from CH34/+ should suppress electron counts at GEO for a time into the new UTC working week. The timing and extent of any recovery is beyond REFM's 72-hour range, however there is perhaps a Chance of re-passing Active around midweek UTC. The upcoming fast wind is not expected to be as significant as now-fading CH33/-, and even considering the fact that CH34/+ is larger and presumably more intense than last rotation, persistence would suggest that flux levels may not reach recent highs.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2026-03-28T00:12:34
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 1%
Day 2 60% 1%
Day 3 10% 1%
Day 4 20% 1%