Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-04-26T12:06:26

GOES19 High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux is showing a diurnal oscillation peaking at Moderate. Electron flux is expected to remain somewhat suppressed given oncoming coronal hole influence and the potential glancing CME impacts over Day 1 (26 April), with flux levels then perhaps increasing to become diurnally High through Days 2 and 3 (27-28 April). 

The 24-hour fluence has reduced below Active, and is expected to stay at this level through the period. This is supported by MOWSOC REFM and 27-day recurrence, which are providing reasonably good guidance, though confidence is slightly lower than is typical, given possible marginal CME influences, and this confidence reduces further by the end of the period.