Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-04-28T00:12:05

GOES19 High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux is showing a diurnal oscillation peaking at Moderate. This is expected to rise in the next 48 hours as solar wind pressure eases and the outer Van Allen belt relaxes back out to encompass GEO, although given the modest current fast wind, exceedence of Active fluence is perhaps only rated as a Slight Chance. The midweek fast wind from CH48/- and any CME influence should both serve to reduce this once again, with low confidence in detail but with the trajectory in electron counts at GEO likely downwards. MOSWOC REFM is of limited use in this scenario, with the fast wind largely beyond its range and with a transient potentially complicating the forecast.