Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-04-29T00:13:52

GOES19 High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux is showing a level tendency in its recent diurnal oscillation peaking at Moderate. This may rise slightly in the next 24 hours as solar wind pressure eases and the outer Van Allen belt relaxes back out to encompass GEO, although given the modest current fast wind, exceedence of Active fluence is not expected.

The midweek fast wind from CH48/- and any CME influence should both serve to reduce this once again, with low confidence in detail but with the trajectory in electron counts at GEO likely downwards. MOSWOC REFM shows forecast and persistence levels do not breach Active in the next 72 hours at least, with this forecast of lower confidence later in the coming working week (UTC) due to a possible transient.