Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-30T00:13:20

High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has mostly been below the Active threshold, excluding a period between 29/1250 UTC and 29/1713 UTC where flux was above threshold - peaking at 3.7e3 pfu at 29/1520UTC. Flux is expected to start below the Active threshold but with the potential for further diurnal threshold breaching. This may be mitigated by any further geomagnetic activity associated with the HSS from CH34/+. However, flux is expected to return more consistently above Active from day 2 (31 Mar), until the connection to CH36/- later day 3 (01 Apr) into day 4 (02 Apr).

High energy electron fluence fell below the Active threshold at 28/1800UTC. The fast wind from CH34/+ is expected to suppress electron counts at GEO for a time. REFM is not offering good guidance but there is a Chance of reaching Active again from late day 2 (31 Mar) until the connection to CH36/-.