Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-31T00:11:44

High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has mostly been below the High threshold, excluding a period between 30/1425 UTC and 30/1655 UTC where flux was above threshold - peaking at 1.3e3 pfu at 30/1455UTC. Flux is expected to remain mostly below the High threshold, but with the potential for further diurnal Highs, these most likely on day 1 (31 Mar). This is likely to be mitigated by the expected CME glance on day 1 (31 Mar), which could see electron flux suppressed to background levels. Any subsequent rise on day 3 or 4 (02-03 Apr) following this CME influence may then be tempered by the next CH connection later in the period. 

High energy electron fluence is currently below the Active threshold. With electron counts unlikely to breach the High threshold for any extended period of time, electron fluence is very unlikely to breach the Active threshold. REFM is currently underplaying the magnitude of fluence, but the general trend for the coming days is considered reasonable.