Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-04-01T00:10:57

High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has mostly been mostly moderate, briefly reaching high in the last 24 hours. It is expected to reduce and become background to moderate with the potential CME arrival on Day 1 (01 Apr). There is then some uncertainty with the onset of the upcoming fast winds from CH36/-, which has a further knock on influence on the electron forecast. In the absence of the potential CME, onset would typically be expected on Days 2-3 (02-03 Apr), and given the potential for a relatively strong connection, electrons are likely to rise afterwards in response. However, this CME has the potential to aid an earlier connection to this feature, with some chance of electron flux rising from Day 2. 

The associated 24 hour fluence will likely respond, however the timing of this is uncertain at this stage. There is a chance of rising above the Active threshold from Day 3 (03 Apr), and a slight chance of rising before then. This is not shown in MOSWOC REFM, as this model is not yet aware of the upcoming CME and CH onset, however the model does provide a good guide to the expected conditions in the absence of any of these enhancements.