Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-04-08T00:13:52

High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 has been mostly High over the last 24 hours, due to the recent CME and HSS influence causing charging within the outer radiation belt. As the CME and HSS influence continues to wane, electron flux levels are likely to increase further during Day 1 (08 Apr). The arrival of the HSS from CH39/+, is likely to initially reduce flux late on Day 2 (09 Apr) or into Day 3 (10 Apr). 

The 24 hour electron fluence is now expected to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout this period though possible reducing after the HSS arrival. This is somewhat supported by MOSWOC REFM, which shows above Active fluence through the next 3 days.