Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-04-15T00:29:48

High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux at GOES19 was Moderate to High during the last 24 hours. Further periods of High flux are expected in the coming days, these most likely around the diurnal maximum period. A fast wind from CH42/- is expected to arrive during Day 4 (18 Apr) with the anticipated significant geomagnetic response expected to reduce electron flux to predominantly Background levels. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain just below the Active threshold initially on Day 1 (15 Apr), but likely to rise just above, perhaps continuing until Day 4 (18 Apr) until the onset of enhanced geomagnetic activity associated with CH42/-. MOSWOC REFM is currently slightly  underestimating the observed flux and expected to continue to do so in the coming days. The strong downward trend in Recurrence values on Day 3 (17 Apr) in is unreliable as tied to CME activity for the equivalent period in March.