Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-04-14T00:14:27

High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux at GOES19 was Moderate to High during the last 24 hours. Further periods of High flux are expected in the coming days, these most likely around the diurnal maximum period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold initially on day 1 (14 Apr) with an increasing chance of reaching the Active threshold into days 2 and 3 (15-16 Apr). MOSWOC REFM is currently overestimating the observed flux, and its strong downward trend is considered unlikely. A better representation is given by recurrence, which is matching observations well and shows a rising trend in the coming days, although the peak fluence may be lower this time due to a milder coronal hole connection this rotation.