Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-14T00:11:54

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux has persisted at Background to Moderate levels. It is likely that flux levels will remain at a similar levels through Day 1 (14 May), with a slight chance of reaching high levels as solar winds fall back to background from currently slightly elevated levels. However, any such enhancement is likely to be short-lived, as the arrival of fast solar wind from CH53/- during Day 2 (15 May) is expected to suppress electron flux once again. Electron flux may begin to increase again from Day 4 (17 May) as solar wind speeds start to weaken, although confidence in this is low.

The associated 24‑hour fluence is expected to remain below the active threshold throughout the period. There is an indication of a slight rise on Day 2 (14 May) if electron flux increases. There is a somewhat greater chance of active fluence toward the end of the period as fast solar wind conditions weaken, although confidence in this remains low.