Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-07T00:15:15

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux is expected to persist at Background to Moderate levels until after the next fast wind enhancement. This is forecast to occur on Day 1 (07 May), due to a connection to the fast winds of CH50/+, and bringing a chance of High flux by the end of Day 2 (08 May) and into Day 3 (09 May).

The associated 24 hour fluence is now expected remain below the Active level for much of the period, on a relatively steady trend, before perhaps increasing from Day 3 (09 May) in response to any fast wind enhancement. MOSWOC REFM or recurrence does not allude to any rise in fluence levels, so the forecast is currently considered low confidence.