Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-06-06T00:08:45

The high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux measured by GOES-19 is currently at Background levels. While Earth remains within the magnetic cloud associated with the recent CME arrivals, significant enhancement of the radiation belts is not expected. As the influence of the CMEs gradually diminish and solar wind speeds begin to ease, the likelihood of high-energy electron flux reaching High levels will increase. Initially, any enhancements are most likely during the daily (diurnal) peak, but more sustained High levels become increasingly probable towards the end of the forecast period.

The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain at Background levels initially before gradually increasing through the forecast period. There is a chance of reaching Active levels by Day 4 (09 Jun). REFM guidance is considered less reliable for this event and is likely overestimating the magnitude of the increase.