Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-06-05T00:19:58

High-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux at GOES-19 is currently between Background to Moderate levels. Into the forecast period the radiation belt electron populations are likely to be heavily influenced by expected CME impacts and associated geomagnetic activity. This reducing forecast confidence significantly but any sustained increase to High levels is only expected later in the period as solar wind pressure and geomagnetic activity are expected to reduce.

The 24 hour integrated fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and expected to generally remain so, although the is a chance of breaching the Active threshold by Day 4 (8 June). REFM output and Recurrence are expected to provide only limited guidance due to forecast CME impacts.