Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-06-04T00:26:33

High-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux at GOES-19 is currently at Background to Moderate levels. However, the recently observed CMEs and their associated very strong solar wind speeds are expected to enhance radiation belt electron populations later in the forecast period.

Initially, the elevated solar wind conditions are likely to compress the radiation belts, limiting electron flux at geostationary orbit (GEO). As solar wind speeds gradually decline, conditions will become more favourable for electron acceleration and transport, leading to an increase in >2 MeV electron flux. A rapid rise to High levels cannot be ruled out during the latter part of the period.

The 24 hour integrated fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold could rise towards Active levels, most likely on Day 4 (7 June).