MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-28T00:12:34
High energy (>2MeV) electron flux at GOES19 has persisted at background and is expected to remain so. Some coronal hole influences are possible through Day 1 (28 May), however, these influences may be weak in which case it could have limited impact on the electron flux.
The 24 hour integrated fluence remains below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and is likely to remain below Active through the period. MOSWOC REFM shows a below Active forecast, which seems reasonable.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-05-28T00:12:34 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |