MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-29T00:21:28
High energy (>2MeV) electron flux at GOES19 has persisted mainly at background levels, with only a brief Moderate diurnal peak observed on 28 May. Longer duration Moderate electron flux periods are likely between Days 2 and 4 (30 May to 01 June) on a diurnal cycle as the solar wind enhancement from CH58/- eases, however High flux is not currently expected to occur.
The 24 hour integrated fluence remains well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and expected to remain below Active levels throughout the period. MOSWOC REFM shows a below Active forecast, which is considered good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-05-29T00:21:28 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |