MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-20T23:45:27
The electron flux is expected to continue fluctuating between Moderate and High levels initially. However, in the absence of any significant source of enhancement, a gradual decline is the most likely trend.
The associated 24-hour fluence is currently below Active levels and continuing on a declining trend, consistent with the latest REFM guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-05-20T23:45:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 40% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 35% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 25% | 1% |