Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-27T00:15:31

High energy (>2MeV) electron flux at GOES19 has persisted at background to moderate levels. A return to high levels during much of this period now seems unlikely. Some coronal hole influences are possible through Days 1-2 (27-28 May), however, these influences may be weak in which case it could have limited impact on the electron flux. There is a slight chance of reaching the high threshold again during Days 3-4 (29-30 May), should the coronal hole be stronger than expected.

The 24 hour integrated fluence remains below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and is likely to remain below Active through the period. A rising trend is possible on Days 3 and 4 (29-30 May), but with just a slight chance of exceeding Active once again. MOSWOC REFM shows a below Active forecast, which seems reasonable.