MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-05T00:13:18
GOES19 >2MeV electron flux is expected to persist at Background to Moderate until after the next fast winds enhancement. This is forecast to occur on day 3 (07 May), due to a connection to the fast wins of CH50/+, and bringing a chance of High flux by the end of day 4 (08 May).
The associated 24 hour fluence is now expected remain below the Active level for much of the period, on a relatively steady trend, before increasing on day 4 (08 May) in response to any fast wind enhancement. This is supported by MOSWOC REFM which is considered to be providing good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-05-05T00:13:18 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |