MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-04T00:10:48
GOES19 >2MeV electron flux has persisted at Background to Moderate over the last couple of days, despite the previous connection to the fast winds from CH48/-. Solar winds are not expected to see any further fast wind enhancements until at least day 4 (07 May), resulting in these flux levels to persist through the period.
The associated 24 hour fluence is now expected remain below the Active level, on a relatively steady trend. This is supported by MOSWOC REFM which is considered to be providing good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-05-04T00:10:48 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |