MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-03T00:23:32
GOES19 >2MeV electron flux is at Moderate levels levels, despite recent fast wind enhancements, and is expected to generally remain so given the lack of significant forecast geomagnetic activity and solar wind enhancement. We are still likely to see a general diurnal rise however, with a chance of reaching High levels at times into the period at the daily max.
The associated 24 hour fluence is currently expected to remain below the Active threshold, perhaps with a gradual rising trend. MOSWOC REFM viewed as reasonable guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-05-03T00:23:32 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 15% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |