Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-04-03T00:11:28

High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 has suffered expected drop-outs at GEO given the current fast wind from CH36/-. On its own, now the feature is maturing, the flux would be expected to begin to climb at GEO in the next 24 hours or so to likely Exceed 24-hour Active fluence, but given the inbound CME and an un-assessed second candidate CME, confidence is lowered significantly.

Should all CMEs miss, Active electron fluence would be Expected by the end of the coming UTC weekend, however their likely presence will buffet the Van Allen belts and ensure that any eventual recovery is delayed, perhaps as late as the coming new UTC working week on Day 4. There is therefore a rising Slight Chance of Active for much of the period, rising to Likely from Monday 06 April.