Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-04-02T00:29:15

High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 is expected to continue Moderate to High, before the onset of the fast wind of CH36/-. This is currently expected on day 1 (02 Apr), with the associated flux likely dropping out to Background as this occurs. With a strong connection to this feature anticipated, some significant charging of the outer Van Allen Belt is likely, with flux expected to become predominately High from later on days 2-4 (03-05 Apr).

The associated 24 hr fluence is expected to remain below Active at first, but is expected to rise above by the end of the period. This is most likely to occur on days 3 and 4 (04-05 Apr), with a chance of rising earlier on day 2 (03 Apr). MOSWOC REFM is considered to be providing good guidance early in the period, but perhaps not capturing the charging effects of the fast wind which are likely to become apparent late in the period.