Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-05-02T00:14:13

There remains a chance that as the HSS continues to wane, and the outer Van Allen belt decompresses, the GOES19 High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux may rise. However, this is now considered less likely than previously thought, due to the current lack of any indication of increasing electron flux now that the current HSS is declining. Recurrence cannot be relied upon due to the smaller nature of CH48 on this rotation and subsequently slower wind speeds.

The 24 hour integrated fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout, but with a slightly increasing trend. Therefore MOSWOC REFM forecast is accepted.