Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-04-25T00:28:53

GOES19 High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has recently reduced from previous High levels, and is expected to remain somewhat suppressed given oncoming coronal hole influence and the potential glancing CME impacts into Day 2 (26 Apr). Increasingly Background levels look likely through Days 1 and 2 (25-26 Apr), with flux levels then perhaps increasing back to Moderate to diurnally High levels through Days 3 and 4 (27-28 Apr). 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain above Active (1e8 integrated flux) into Day 1 (25 Apr) initially, but is likely to decline below Active through Day 2 (26 Apr) as a consequence of the subdued flux. This is supported by both MOSWOC REFM and 27-day Recurrence, with the former now providing reasonably good guidance, although confidence reduces into the period.