Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-04-24T00:22:46

GOES19 High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux is expert to persist predominately at High levels, after the recent charging of the radiation belts from the fast winds of CH42/-, until the onset of the next fast wind, from CH47. This is likely to drop the flux values to become background to moderate. Flux levels may increase Moderate to High later Day 3 (26 Apr) but more likely through Day 4 (27 Apr), although this is low confidence.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain above Active (1e8 integrated flux) throughout Day 1 (24 Apr), but likely declining below Active through Day 2 (26 Apr) as a consequence of the subdued flux from slightly enhanced geomagnetic activity. This is supported by both MOSWOC REFM and 27-day Recurrence, with the former now providing good guidance.