Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-04-23T00:10:52

GOES19 High energy (>2 MeV) electron flux is expert to persist predominately High through until day 3 (25 Apr), after the recent charging of the radiation belts from the fast winds of CH42/-. The onset of the next fast wind, from CH46/+ is then likely to drop values out to background, before recovering again day 4 (26 Apr), although this is low confidence.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to be Active throughout, but likely easing through day 3 (26 Apr) as a consequence of the subdued flux from the fast wind onset. Any recovery on day 4 (26 Apr) is low confidence. This is supported by both MOSWOC REFM and 27-day Recurrence, with the former now providing good guidance.