Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-25T13:11:05

GOES19 high‑energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has remained at High levels. The impact of the CME arrival  in recent hours of day 1 (25 March) does not appear to have significantly reduced the electron count at GEO in the outer Van Allen belt, and there is increasing confidence that levels will likely remain High for much of this guidance period.

With high levels of flux likely to be maintained will probably result in exceedance of the Active 24-hour integrated electron fluence is to continue for much of the period with a slight chance of Very Active levels, with this highly dependent on continuing impacts of the CME. MOSWOC REFM is felt to offer good guidance in the absence of any further CME impacts in coming hours, with exceedance of 1e8 integrated pfu probably enduring through the guidance period.