Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-18T12:41:52

GOES‑19 high‑energy (>2 MeV) electron flux is currently at high levels and will likely remain elevated until the anticipated arrival of the 16 Mar CME later Day 2 (19 Mar) or early Day 3 (20 Mar), which will likely supress electrons at GEO. Further weak CMEs are likely to arrive Days 3 and 4 (20-21 Mar) which should keep electrons suppressed.

The associated 24hr electron fluence is currently above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated flux) and is likely to stay above this level until the expected CME arrival later Day 2 or early Day 3. MOSWOC REFM is currently underestimating the fluence, with observed values expected to follow recurrence trends until the CME impact, after which fluence should fall below the Active threshold.