Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-20T00:50:57

GOES‑19 high‑energy (>2 MeV) electron flux is currently at high levels and will remain elevated until the anticipated arrival of the 16th Mar CME early today (20 Mar), which will likely suppress electrons at GEO. Further CMEs are likely to arrive Days 1 and 2 (20-21 Mar) which should keep electrons suppressed through much of the period, with a coronal hole fast wind then to follow.

The associated 24hr electron fluence is currently above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated flux) and is likely to stay above this level until later Day 1 or early Day 2. MOSWOC REFM is currently underestimating the fluence, with observed values expected to continuing following a level trend, until the impacts of the CME arrival result in the fluence falling below the Active threshold.